The sportsbook will make a profit by taking more money from losing wagers than they payout to winning wagers. To break down exactly what that means, you can think of this way - if the average break-even rate for all bettors adds up to a number over 100%, it’s impossible for all bettors to break-even across their bets. The extra percent above 100% is called the hold, and it represents the percent of dollars wagered that the sportsbook keeps for itself as profit. If we calculate the implied probability of both these bets, we’d see that the total probability is about 104% (38.46% + 65.51%).
You might think that the odds of the underdog winning or the favorite winning must add up to 100%, right? Well, not quite. For instance, our moneyline of +160 on the underdog might be associated with a moneyline of -190 for the favorite. We can think of this 38.46% as the approximate likelihood the sportsbook is assigning to the moneyline hitting.Įvery line has at least two sides. To break-even, this bettor will have to win at least 38.46% of their bets.
For instance, a bettor wagering $100 on a moneyline of +160 will generate $160 in profit on winning bets and -$100 in losses on losing bets. When a sportsbook sets a line or gives odds, they’re assigning a probability of some event happening.
